Study: Global calorie needs to rise in future

A rising Body Mass Index (BMI), which assesses weight for height, and an increasing body height lead to a marked increase in global calorie requirements, says a study by researchers at the University of Göttingen.

The results of the German study have been published in the journal PLOS ONE.

The researchers investigated how the real amount of meal that individuals would want to consume is expected to change.

Before this research, scientists had only examined the question of the quantity of food required to feed the global population in the future from the viewpoint of how much food individuals can pay for, how much meal is healthy or what can be sustainably produced.

People’s average body size and body height is increasing in most countries and more is required to be consumed to preserve the higher weight, says the research.

Professor Stephan Klasen, the development economist from the faculty of business and economics at the university, and his then doctoral student, Lutz Depenbusch, have calculated a situation to examine how calorie consumption could change between 2010 and 2100.

Previous changes in Mexico and the Netherlands were used as a standard.

Depenbusch said, “The developments in these countries are very pronounced, but they do represent a realistic scenario.”

According to the study, global calorie needs stand to increase by over 60 percent by 2100 because of population growth even if both height and BMI were to stay constant. As BMI rises, like in Mexico, and height increases, like in the Netherlands, there would be an additional increase of over 18 percent. This translates to increase in global calorie needs between 2010 and 2100 being one third larger, extending to an overall increase of about 80%, says the research.

The researchers fear that if global food production does not meet this increased requirement, a corresponding decrease in BMI will not be able to control this problem.

Professor Klasen told US and Global News, “The increase in height and especially in weight will ensure that by 2100 we need the calories that would be enough to feed India and Nigeria just to maintain these larger bodies. This shows that the global increase in overweight and obesity is not only unhealthy for those affected but also puts additional pressure on our food system.”

While individuals who can afford to buy more will be able to maintain their eating habits, people who cannot stand to suffer greatly from higher prices due to increase in demand.

Depenbusch stated, “This would lead to increased consumption of cheap food, often rich in calories but poor in nutrients. As a result, body weight among the poor would continue to rise alongside malnutrition and poorer health outcomes.”

Featured photo and World Map image via EurekAlert! and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) (News Release).  

Depenbusch and Prof. Klasen's photos via press release on University of  Göttingen's website.