Swing voters surge in Iowa ahead of caucuses

The percentage of registered independents who actively vote in Iowa has increased from 35.3% to 37.7% since the last election, making independents the largest pool of voters ahead of tomorrow’s caucuses in the state, reports tech-powered real estate brokerage Redfin after analyzing voter registration data provided by the State of Iowa.

Redfin says it serves over 85 major metro areas across the US and Canada and has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.

According to Redfin’s analysis, Iowa has lost about the same numbers of actively registered Republicans and Democrats from November 2016 to November 2019, with Democrats being at a decline of 24,000 and Republicans at 29,000.

Those who registered under “independent” or “other” have increased in number by 45,000, which brings the total count of the state’s swing voters to 750,000 or 37.7%, said Redfin.

“The nearly equal decline of partisan voters in Iowa indicates that many people no longer identify with the established parties,” said the Redfin press release. “However, that doesn’t mean they’re uninterested in voting.”

According to the US Census Bureau’s November 2018 report, Iowa presently ranks fourth nationally for percentage of citizens registered to vote. Moreover, according to the bureau, the state ranks ninth for voter turnout.

Taylor Marr, Redfin’s lead economist, said, ” “Even though we can’t predict exactly how the Iowa caucuses will pan out, the relatively consistent state-wide increase in independent voters signifies both a shift in partisanship and migration patterns.”

He added, “There are some candidates who are more appealing to the independent voters, and Iowa’s new caucus format could allow them to play a larger role in many swing counties. Purple counties could turn blue.”

The Iowa county with the biggest independent voter share gain since the November 2016 election is Van Buren, where there is a 5.9% increase in independent voters and -0.1% Republican share of votes following new independent voters. The political preference in the county is red and the net migration (2018) is -80.

Image Attribution: Billwhittaker at English Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 3.0)