IMF Outlook 2025: Global growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, advanced economies to 1.4%, emerging markets to 3.7%

April 22, 2025 Tabish Faraz

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today published its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) survey, titled “A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts,” warning that “global growth is expected to decline and downside risks to intensify as major policy shifts unfold.”

The report, a semiannual survey by IMF staff of economic prospects and policy challenges with updates in between, incorporates data and projections through April 14, 2025.

According to the estimates and projections in April 2025 WEO Chapter 1 and the Statistical Appendix, global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 2.8 percent in 2025 before recovering to 3.0 percent in 2026. This marks a significant downward revision from the January 2025 WEO Update, reflecting the reimposition of effective tariff rates not seen in a century and a sharply more uncertain policy environment.

Among advanced economies, growth is projected to ease from 1.8 percent in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025, with only a modest uptick to 1.5 percent in 2026. The United States is expected to slow from 2.8 percent the previous year to 1.8 percent this year, while the euro area’s expansion dips from 0.9 percent to 0.8 percent over the same period. Within Europe, Germany’s economy is forecast to stagnate in 2025 after a 0.2 percent contraction in 2024, France to grow by 0.6 percent, and Italy by 0.4 percent. Spain is seen cooling from 3.2 percent to 2.5 percent. Japan’s growth is set to edge up from 0.1 percent to 0.6 percent, and the United Kingdom is projected to remain steady at 1.1 percent. Other advanced economies collectively are expected to slow from 2.2 percent to 1.8 percent.

Emerging market and developing economies are forecast to decelerate from 4.3 percent in 2024 to 3.7 percent next year, before rebounding to 3.9 percent in 2026. The report highlights Emerging and Developing Asia slowing from 5.3 percent to 4.5 percent; China’s growth moderating from 5.0 percent to 4.0 percent; and India easing from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. Emerging Europe is projected at 2.1 percent in both 2025 and 2026, with Russia slowing sharply from 4.1 percent to 1.5 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean are seen at 2.0 percent in 2025 (down from 2.4 percent), with Brazil at 2.0 percent and Mexico contracting by 0.3 percent before a partial rebound. The Middle East and Central Asia are set to accelerate from 2.4 percent to 3.0 percent, led by Saudi Arabia’s jump from 1.3 percent to 3.0 percent. Sub‑Saharan Africa’s growth is forecast at 3.8 percent, slightly below 2024’s 4.0 percent, with Nigeria at 3.0 percent and South Africa at 1.0 percent.

In a memorandum, the IMF notes that emerging market and middle‑income countries as a group will see growth slow from 4.3 percent to 3.7 percent in 2025, while low‑income developing countries will accelerate from 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent.

IMF growth projections in World Economic Outlook April 2025 survey

The World Economic Outlook calls on governments to cooperate on trade and financial policies, close structural gaps and implement measures — such as boosting labor force participation among older workers and women, integrating migrants and refugees and addressing skill mismatches — to support stability and productivity. The IMF cautions that escalating trade tensions and shifting policy stances could tighten financial conditions further and jeopardize longer‑term expansion.

All estimates and projections are based on information available through April 14, 2025, and may not capture subsequent data releases, says the IMF.